Trends in TikTok advertising in 2023: a comprehensive guide

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tik tok advertising trends
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🌰 TOP 5 verticals for advertising trends in Tik Tok (TT) in 2023.


The Tiktok social network continues to gain popularity around the world, maintaining its attractiveness as an advertising platform not only among marketers, but also ordinary arbitrageurs. We offer you to get acquainted with the vertical trends in TikTok for this year.

Curiously, with the advent of Tiktak, users began to watch less TV, as evidenced by a recent study that the company collected on its users in the United States, Canada and Europe. 35% of the surveyed users admitted that they began to watch less TV or completely abandoned it, replacing it with tiktoks. Another 45% of users admitted that they began to spend less time on dating apps, preferring TT

Trends in TikTok advertising in 2023: a comprehensive guide

46% of the surveyed users admitted that watching videos in TT absorbs attention so much that it is difficult for them to be distracted by external factors. And this level of engagement attracts more and more advertisers to the platform.

Top 5 verticals for advertising in TikTok

Catch a cheat sheet with trends and keywords in TikTok, which will help to better prepare an advertising campaign, as well as a selection of 5 verticals that can be launched in TT today.

  • Beauty products. Creams, vitamins, cosmetics, beauty accessories, everything that will help your audience stay healthy and beautiful). TT users pay special attention to health, and the “healthy lifestyle” trend has been in the top for more than a year.
  • Sports and fitness. In the continuation of a healthy lifestyle, fit has not disappeared anywhere.vertical. Sports goods, sports equipment, home workouts, diaries of nutrition and healthy habits — any opportunities to take care of your health at home will be popular this year.
  • Clothes and shoes. Imitating influencers, dressing up as favorite characters from TV series and talk shows, collecting celebrity bows – will never go out of fashion. The trend to imitation has so filled the world of buyers that many stores began to glue the marks “this look is in TikTok”
  • Entertainment and games. Mobile games and applications with entertainment content may not occupy a leading position in TT, but they still retain the interest of users. The ability to use interactive advertising increases the interest of users in the application.
  • Travel vertical. Hotels, flights, tickets, bookings, etc. The keyword “Book” has more than 27 million views on the platform. All over the world, users continue to plan vacations, honeymoons and themed trips, and TT offers its own platform to reach the target audience.

One of the main features of TikTok is a young audience. Most of the platform’s users are between the ages of 16 and 24, and this should be taken into account when choosing products for advertising. In addition, TT is still dominated by women, more than 60% of users on the platform are representatives of the fair sex.

TikTok is a great platform for advertising, but for a successful campaign it is necessary to take into account many features of the platform. Pay attention to trending industries, choose your target audience, and use interactive formats.

#TikTokAdvertising, #TikTokTrends, #BeautyProducts, #SportsAndFitness, #ClothesAndShoes, #EntertainmentAndGames, #TravelVertical, #YoungAudience, #InteractiveFormats, #TargetAudience, #TikTokTrends, #TikTokMarketing, #TikTokInfluencers, #TikTokAdvertising, #TikTokFollowers, #TikTokAnalytics, #TikTokHashtag, #TikTokVideos, #TikTokMonetization, #TikTokContentStrategy

 

How is the US economy affected by wage inflation?

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US economy affected by wage inflation
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How is the US economy affected by wage inflation? USA: s/p are growing – inflation too

Income & Expenses. In January, American statisticians again revised income data, as a result, it turned out that disposable incomes are growing by 2.0% mom and 8.5% yoy. The revision for previous periods concerned the growth of nominal s/p in the private sector, which turned out to be more intense than previously thought and amounted to 1% mom and 8.4% yoy, and since December 2019 the growth was 25%. Additionally, in January, the budget threw money (taxes were reduced). Inflation, of course, ate up part of the income, real disposable incomes showed an increase of 1.4% mom and 2.3% YoY.

Consumer spending increased by 1.8% mom and 7.9% YoY in nominal terms, but monthly increases are a consequence of the seasonal calculation curve of retail sales in December/January, the annual dynamics here is more indicative, and it indicates an acceleration in the growth of real spending per capita to 1.9% yoy and this 7.1% higher than the levels of December 2019. The revision of the growth of the s/p also led to a revision of the savings rate, which in January was 4.7%, so there is where to go down if anything.

Inflation. The deflator of consumer spending accelerated sharply to 0.6% mom and 5.4% YoY, core inflation (Core PCE) accelerated to 0.6% mom and 4.7% YoY. Moreover, the price increase was quite widespread across the basket. It is clear that prices in the housing sector are growing quite actively (0.7% mom and 8% yoy), the growth of goods without energy and food is more modest (0.5% mom and 2.8% yoy), food and energy have risen in price (0.4% mom and 11.1% yoy/d). But the most important thing is that the beloved now J.Powell’s price index for services without energy and housing accelerated its growth to 0.6% mom (a record since November 2021) and 4.8% yoy (the maximum since February 2022). Cyclical components of core inflation accelerated growth to 8% YoY, their contribution to overall inflation is about 3 percentage points.

What we have in the end: wages grew faster than expected, the consumer is active, inflation accelerated (especially where it is sensitive for the Fed) stronger than forecasts. The markets, of course, are depressed… expectations of a Fed rate hike rose to 5.25-5.5%. Shares of “hawks” in the Fed sharply up.

​​#USA #income #economy #Crisis #spending #budget #inflation

Loretta Mester:
(24.02.2023)

“The rate should be raised above 5% and kept there for some time. I hope the Fed will be able to return inflation to 2% without destroying the labor market.”

James Bullard:
(22.02.2023)

“A more aggressive rate hike will give the Fed a better chance of reducing inflation.”

Source: cnbc.com

Evercore:

The probability of achieving a soft landing is reduced. We still believe that the Fed is unlikely to return to raising rates by 0.50%, however, such a risk appeared after the release of the latest data on the PCE Price Index.


Minutes of the Fed meeting January 31-February 1, 2023 (FOMC Minutes).
(pub. 22.02.23)
(page 11)

“Almost all officials were in favor of raising the rate by 0.25%. FOMC members who were in favor of raising the rate by 0.50% noted that a more significant increase would bring the rate closer to the levels that, in their opinion, would allow achieving a fairly restrictive position.”

source: federalreserve.gov

For 100 years, the US stock market has entered the overbought zone for the third time

#stocks #usa #sp500 #overbought #stock market #finance

For 100 years, the US stock market has entered the overbought zone for the third time

Over the past 100 years, the American stock market has entered an overbought zone for the third time in relation to the global stock market. This means that the cycle of dominance of American stocks in the global financial market is over. Pay attention to the exhibitor from 2008, it looks epic.
In the West, this schedule is not yet discussed enough, however, with the onset of depression, it will definitely become relevant.
Of course, this does not mean that the American market will not grow, but investors will give priority to other developed and emerging markets.

investors have had a paradigm shift

investors have had a paradigm shift


#rates #bonds #cash #stocks #finance #allocation

This month, investors experienced a paradigm shift in expectations of the peak discount rate in the United States: at the beginning of the month, expectations were 4.5% in March-April, now – 5.4% in August, with a further decline to 3.8% by the end of the year.
The change of mood led to the breakdown of trends in the financial market: the growth of the dollar brought down the prices of precious metals and base currencies, and led to the sale of the US debt market, the stock market is still holding, but the positive there is also over.
At the next stage, the market will increase expectations for the duration of the high-rate cycle, which will also lead to a decrease in risk appetite.

The red line on the chart is the difference between the yield of junk bonds and treasuries; the indicator is steadily decreasing, i.e., according to the market, garbage carries less risk than risk-free government bonds;
The blue line is the world’s lending standards, which are already worse than they were in 2020; that is, it is more difficult to get a loan, and this primarily concerns less reliable borrowers who issue junk bonds.
Actually, the situation was similar in the pre-crisis 2007, but now all the processes are going faster, so this year the global financial system may plunge into depression.

the yield of treasuries is 2.5 times higher than the internal yield of the S&P500

the yield of treasuries is 2.5 times higher than the internal yield of the S&P500

#finance #dividend #coupon #stocks #bonds

📍Probably the most underestimated chart to date: the yield of treasuries is 2.5 times higher than the internal yield of the S&P500 (you can not count on the income from the exchange rate difference in the rate hike cycle).
Taking into account the current risks, from the point of view of the risk/profit ratio, it is more profitable to sell shares and buy treasuries, and this flow will increase as the prices of American stocks decline – this will put additional pressure on the US stock market.

The company’s reporting for the upcoming week

The company's reporting for the upcoming week

🇺🇸 #USA #reporting season #reporting
in the USA the reporting season continues : corporate reporting for the upcoming week

FactSet: 68% have already exceeded earnings per share expectations this reporting season, which is below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%

66% of companies exceeded revenue expectations, which is below the 5-year average of 69%, but above the 10-year average of 63%

@ESG_Stock_Market

The Fed raged, but the US Treasury corrected everything

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Fed's rate hike
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The Fed raged, but the US Treasury corrected everything

After a week-long pause, the Fed reduced its portfolio of government bonds by $32.4 billion and mortgage securities by 1.2 billion at once, the “other” assets of the Fed decreased by another $15 billion (where accumulated interest/coupons are usually taken into account), in total, the assets of the Fed decreased by $50.6 billion at once. But the US Treasury came to the rescue, which in a week reduced its reserves of “cache” at the Fed by $56.1 billion, and it did all this on February 15 in the amount of $87.9 billion. Despite the fact that one of the most significant weekly reductions of the Fed’s balance sheet took place this week, the banks did not have less dollars. And, given that banks have reduced reverse repos by $56 billion, there is even more free dollar liquidity – the balances on the accounts at the Fed have increased by $73.9 billion to $3.1 trillion.

There were more dollars, which helped the stock market in the face of the Fed’s aggressive rhetoric, but it certainly did not help the government debt market. Although the Ministry of Finance practically did not increase market debt during the week, the US government debt curve went up by 40-70 points in a week, the inversion of the curve remains around 1%.

The US Treasury still has a large margin of safety: $440 billion of cash in the Fed, which it will gradually spend in anticipation of the ceiling, adding dollars to the system and leveling the effect of the Fed’s QT and up to $400 billion of “emergency measures”. In April, the budget balance is usually positive (annual taxes), even with the growing costs of servicing the national debt, Yellen should have enough money until September.
After two consecutive months of buying US stocks by non-residents, “hot” loan money was attracted to the US market, in January, for the first time in six months, the volume of margin debt increased (positions with leverage) and immediately by $ 35 billion, to $ 641 billion. But they reached there through an increase in leverage, because the balance of funds on margin accounts did not grow, but even decreased from $164 billion to $161 billion. On the one hand, this is good for stocks at the moment, “hot” credit money has pulled up to record cashbacks and the influx of non-residents’ money, but this is in the moment.

If you look a little further, then against the background of the degradation of profits, the cashbacks may be lower (this is even if the Democrats cannot push through a tax increase). High rates will actively eat up free capital on margin accounts – margin is expensive, and for every dollar of cash now $4 borrowed is decent. The Fed is still aggressive:

✔️ hawks Mester and Bullard, although they have already increased by 50 bps again
, ✔️ the rest intend to keep the rate high, at least until the end of the year.

A reversal of the Fed, of course, is possible, but it is more likely to happen together with a financial shock (economic processes are much more inert than financial ones), which is unlikely to be positive for the market at the first stage of the action. In this regard, the arrival of “hot” credit money, although it supports stocks at the moment, but at the same time forms a mass for future descent when the market conditions worsen…. ​​#USA #inflation #economy #Fed #debt #rates #dollar

⚖️ Markets are putting the Fed’s rate hike in March on:

Fed's rate hike

0.25% with 82% probability
0.50% with 18% probability

a day ago:
0.25% with 85% probability
0.50% with 15% probability

a week ago:
0.25% with 91% probability
0.50% with 9% probability
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

For the first time in the current US rate hike cycle, the market expects a rate higher than the Fed lays down

US rate hike cycle

📍 For the first time in the current US rate hike cycle, the market expects a rate higher than the Fed lays down (blue line).
Back in early February, market expectations for the end of the year were at 4.4%, on 16.02. – 5.08%, and on 17.02. – 5.13%.
📍 At the same time , the hawks )supporters of a tough policy) want to raise the rate by 0.5% in March, which is not yet being laid by the market. So, despite the sharp shift in market expectations on the subject of monetary policy, surprises are not over yet, and in general, they are now frequent guests.
#rate #usa #fed #finance #prep

The historical chart of the discount rate in the United States tells us that in the cycle of rate increases

chart of the discount rate in the United States

The historical chart of the discount rate in the United States tells us that in the cycle of rate increases, there is always some kind of “accident” in the financial system, which may be local (1987, 1998, etc.), or lead to a financial crisis (2008, 1929, etc.), but it always happens.
In addition, the current rate of rate hikes are second only to the 70-80 years of the last century – this definitely poses a danger that cannot be quantified.
#history #crisis #recession
Seasonal factors are a short-term risk factor. Thoughts for the next month.
Seasonal factors are a short-term risk factor, but the arguments in favor of stocks remain unchanged

Although there have been some “hot” inflationary economic data recently, it is too easy and tempting for supporters of inflation to pounce on them and think that inflation is skyrocketing.

But the Fed depends on the data, and does not “react to them,” and until the main factors of inflation grow rapidly – energy, housing and wages – the Fed will raise rates, but in a predictable way. This is what determines the lower volatility and this is what allows the multipliers to grow this year.

We assume that the shares will grow strongly in 2023, and the expansion of the spectrum contributes to this. For this, there were three factors that are observed only at major turning points in the markets, and this confirms our opinion that October 12, 2022 was the main minimum.

But we also have to respect seasonal factors, and we believe that 16.02-07.03 remains a period when markets may stall. As shown in the picture, the aggregate of 7 previous years, when the markets gained > 1.4% according to the “rule of the first 5 days”.

Performance of sectors, goods, currencies, companies as of 02/18/2023
Performance of US Equity Sectors (YTD):

1. Consumer Cyclical: +16.5%
2. Technology: +13.9%
3. Communications: +11.6%
4. Real Estate: +8.2%
5. Financial: +7.2%
6. Industrials: +6.7%
7. Materials: +6.2%
8. Consumer Defensive: +0.1%
9. Healthcare: -0.9%
10. Energy: -1.0%
11. Utilities: -2.2%

Performance of Metals in the USA (YTD):

1. Iron ore +12.2%
2. Copper +8.3%
3. Gold +1.4%
4. Zinc +1.3%
5. Aluminum +0.6%
6. Steel -3.4%
7. Nickel -9.1%
8. Silver -9.7%
9. Platinum -15.0%
10. Palladium -17.0%

Performance commodities in the USA (YTD):

1. Cocoa +6.9%
2. Lumber +0.2%
3. Soybeans +0.2%
4. Corn -0.1%
5. Sugar -1.1%
6. Wheat -2.1%
7. Oil -3.2%
8. Gas -49.4%

Top 5 Growth/Fall Leaders in the S&P 500 (YTD):

1. Tesla: +69.1%
2. Warner Bros. Discovery: +62.8%
3. Catalent: +58.6%
4. Align: +50.2%
5. Royal Caribbean Cruises: +47.7%

1. Lumen: -24.7%
2. Enphase: -22.6%
3. Baxter: -19.6%
4. APA: -18.4%
5. Pfizer: -15.7%

Top 5 leaders of growth/decline on NASDAQ* (YTD):

1. Coinbase: +84.2%
2. Tesla: +69.1%
3. Warner Bros. Discovery: +62.8%
4. Lucid Group: +60.0%
5. Airbnb: +53.9%

1. Enphase Energy: -22.6%
2. Sirius XM: -21.2%
3. APA: -18.4%
4. Chesapeake: -15.1%
5. ZoomInfo: -14.6%

* cap. > $10 billion

Top 10 largest US companies by capitalization (YTD):

1. Apple +17.4%
2. Microsoft +7.6%
3. Google +6.8%
4. Amazon +15.7%
5. Tesla +69.1%
6. Berkshire Hathaway -0.2%
7. NVIDIA +46.4%
8. Visa +7.6%
9. UnitedHealth -5.9%
10. Meta* +43.7%

Top 5 leaders of growth/decline of Chinese stocks* (YTD):

1. Baidu: +29.3%
2. Aluminum Corp of China: +23.4%
3. Li Auto: +22.7%
4. Netease: +22.0%
5. HSBC: +21.8%

1. JD Health: -17.2%
2. Meituan: -16.7%
3. Smoore: -15.9%
4. Kuaishou: -15.3%
5. Henhan: -8.3%

Top 10 largest companies in China by capitalization (YTD):

1. Tencent +17.8%
2. Kweichow Moutai +5.2%
3. Alibaba +16.0%
4. ICBC +2.0%
5. CCB +2.7%
6. China Mobile +11.6%
7. HSBC +21.8%
8. Contemporary Amper +7.2%
9. Agricultural Bank of China +3.8%
10. CM Bank +3.1%

Top 5 Growth/Fall Leaders on MOEX* (YTD):

1. Polymetal +27.5%
2. Globaltrans +25.7%
3. Sberbank +13.2%
4. Ozone +12.9%
5. Pole +12.7%

1. Tatneft -9.2%
2. Tatneft AP -6.6%
3. X5 Group -5.7%
4. Lukoil -5.6%
5. Rosneft -5.6%

People’s portfolio of shares of the Russian Federation on the Moscow Exchange (shares)*:

1. Sberbank JSC: 26.6%
2. Gazprom: 22.5%
3. Lukoil: 10.4%
4. Norilsk Nickel: 9.6%
5. Sberbank AP: 7.1%
6. Yandex: 5.4%
7. Rosneft: 5.3%
8. Surgutneftegaz AP: 5.1%
9. Novatek: 4.2%
10. MTS: 3.8%

Company Results (YTD):

1. Sberbank JSC +12.8%
2. Gazprom -5.8%
3. Lukoil -5.9%
4. Norilsk Nickel -5.7%
5. Sberbank AP +11.3%
6. Yandex +8.5%
7. Rosneft -6.2%
8. Surgutneftegaz AP +2.6%
9. Novatek -4.4%
10. MTS +5.5%

Portfolio result since the beginning of the year: +2.0%.

Currencies and Cryptocurrencies* (YTD):

1. USD** +0.2%
2. EUR -0.1%
3. GBP -0.4%
4. JPY -2.3%
5. CNH +0.8%
6. RUB -4.9%
7. KZT +3.3%

1. Bitcoin +49.2%
2. Ethereum +42.1%
3. Ripple +17.0%
4. Cardano +64.3%
5. Solana +134.8%
6. DogeCoin +25.5%

* against the US dollar
** DXY – dollar index

Performance of World Indices (YTD):

US:
S&P-500: +5.9%
NASDAQ: +12.0%

Asia:
Shanghai Comp.: +4.4%
Nikkei: +6.1%
Nifty 50*: -1.0%
KASE**: +4.0%
XU100***: -9.7%

Europe:
DAX: +10.6%
FTSE-100: +7.1%
CAC-40: +12.7%
MOEX: +0.5%

* indian index
** kazakhstan index
*** Turkish index

Source: https://finviz.com

@ESG_Stock_Market

Moderate greed in crypto, greed in stocks is in the risk zone. Be cautious ♨️. Fear greed index

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Fear and greed nasdaq
Post Views: 63

Fear and greed nasdaq, moderate greed in cryptocurrencies, greed in stocks is at risk. What are we trying to say?

fear greed index

Why was the stock market depressed on Friday? US: The overheated labor market doesn’t want to cool down. Fear and greed nasdaq

Statisticians traditionally revised the U.S. labor market numbers in February, with historical data revised up by 813,000, and the gain in employment in January was an incredulous 517,000, of which 443,000 was in the private sector. So quite unexpectedly there was another million employed, i.e., the labor market was even hotter than thought. Of course, the main thing here is the data revision, but compared to the December report, there were 1.3 million more people employed in January.
The unemployment rate in January was at its lowest level since 1969, dropping to 3.4%. Labor force participation rose slightly (62.4%), but it’s still decently below pre-decline levels. The labor force participation rate has also risen slightly to 60.2%, although it too remains below pre-set levels, and that’s with the current near-zero unemployment rate. The fact that the labor market has even improved in recent weeks was indicated by the benefits data, which fell below 200K per week, the current report has confirmed it.

With wages also turned out to be somewhat better, the slowdown in 2022 was lower than previously thought, and growth even accelerated somewhat in January. This was not due to an increase in hourly wages (+0.3% mom), but more to the estimate of hours worked. Production and non-management payrolls added 0.8% mom and 9.2% yoy, more than twice the average pre-crisis level.

It’s worth discounting the fact that this is a February report and revisions, but still, after seeing job openings rise sharply in December and amid record-low unemployment benefits, the market still looks like it’s very hot. And that will give the hawks at the Fed new arguments to kick the growing pigeonhole army. The market, on this, of course, is depressed …

A little clarity. ​​The Fed took it away, the Ministry of Finance added

The Fed continued to reduce the portfolio this week, removing $38 billion of government bonds from the balance sheet at once, over the past 4 weeks the portfolio has decreased by $60 billion – everything is according to plan. The Fed is not getting steadily on mortgages, but this is already a familiar story. The US Treasury, on the contrary, added $ 72 billion to the system, raising bank liquidity by $ 30 billion. Local fluctuations will occur here, but the main process will not change: the US Treasury will borrow little, the Fed will continue to QT, but the overall supply of public debt will be low. At the same time, the budget will spend the cache, adding liquidity, and the Fed will withdraw it through QT. And there will be such a swamp until Yellen runs out of cash on her accounts and “emergency measures” and the debt ceiling is raised – then the situation can shake up.

The US Treasury has published plans for the first half of the year, it needs to borrow $1.3 trillion in the market to end the half-year with $0.55 trillion in cash on the balance sheet. But they estimate the actual financing needs at $0.6 trillion for the first half of the year – this is due to the fact that annual taxes are paid in the second quarter and there is virtually no budget deficit. In this regard, Yellen, of course, rather catches up with fears, saying that the money will last until June, in reality they are quite capable of holding out until September without raising the ceiling, if there are no emergency expenses.
Interest expenses on debt in the 4th quarter have already officially amounted to $0.85 trillion (in annual terms, or 3.3% of GDP) – increased by 42% YoY. Net interest expenses adjusted for Fed payments and interest income in annual terms increased to $0.82 trillion (3.1% of GDP), which is 77% higher than in the 4th quarter of last year. By the end of the year, we expect more than $1 trillion in interest on the debt, which is comparable to the records of the 80s and a big fight over the budget.

Looking back at the decisions of the Fed and the ECB (the Bank of England does not count – they initially rather pretend that they are struggling with something, even though the head of the Central Bank said that this is not the end of the increase), although the Central Bank itself did not show much softness – they showed complete uncertainty, and if they themselves are not in why are you not sure – why should the market believe them and their forecasts? Well, the market generally does not believe them, but I think the market overestimates the softness of the Central Bank and underestimates the risks of recession and inflation …
#USA # inflation #economy #Fed #debt # rates #dollar

What did Powell tell us? Powell: postpone until March

What did Powell tell us? Powell: postpone until March

The press conference of the head of the Fed turned out to be even more insipid than her press release. Perhaps its main motive is only one thing: to raise it by the expected 25 bp and sit out until the March meeting, and then we’ll see. This is exactly what the entire speech of J. was dedicated to.Powell. He repeated dozens of times everything that the market has already heard many times and which he does not really believe.

In fact, trying (which is typical for the Fed under Powell) to sit behind the locomotive, because they are not sure of anything and (apparently) are very afraid to make a mistake again. The peak of the bid – we do not know, maybe higher, maybe lower… how long – some time, where it will turn – we will go there.

Powell said a lot of “I think”, “I think”, as a rule, everything he says after these phrases means a little more than nothing – it showed up well in the first term, the crown “I think inflation is temporary”, because he doesn’t have much of his own expertise.

“Powell is talking hawkishly at every opportunity he can, using all the standard phrases, but the dollar scoffs at this admonishment.” – in this comment, the whole attitude of the market to the signals of the Fed. When the market sees fear (to make a mistake) and uncertainty, it always bends its line. By the way, this does not mean at all that the market is right in its expectations, but while it bends, it bends.

It is possible to understand the Fed, the second mistake in a row can cost not only the chair to Powell himself, but also bear the quite material risk of losing the formal independence of the Fed, which forces them to take an extremely cautious position, leaving the doors open in all directions. But the markets are taking a very specific position, which threatens volatility on the one hand, while reducing the effectiveness of the Fed’s policy on the other.

Anyway, the Fed has suspended the situation until the March meeting, when they will have to publish forecasts. The markets interpret this as weakness, driving the dollar rates down, and risk assets and gold up. It is not a fact that this fuse will last for a long time, the first good reports on the labor market, or bad ones on inflation will be nervously perceived.
#Fed #rate #inflation #USA

 

It is not a recommendation for action.

“Praemonitus, praemunitus”

@ESG_Stock_Market

Bulls on Chinese stocks are hoping for a 10 percent market pullback before the Lunar New Year 2023 to buy a fall: BofA survey

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Bulls on Chinese stocks 2023
Post Views: 66

Bulls on Chinese stocks are hoping for a 10 percent market pullback before the Lunar New Year to buy a fall: BofA survey

According to a Bank of America survey, investment managers from Hong Kong fear a decline in Chinese stock prices after a sharp rise over the past two months. Some funds are counting on a rollback before the Lunar New Year next week.

“Given the good results, some investors hope to make a profit on the eve of the Lunar New Year,” according to a report dated January 18 by equity strategists at the American bank. They waited for a 5-10% drop before replenishing their positions on dips, as the report showed.

The answer came from a survey of 80 fund managers in the city who attended several meetings and presentations held by Bank of America this month,
as analysts at Wall Street stores including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan predicted bullish market forecasts based on China’s opening.

Despite the short-term worries, investors are still “unabashedly optimistic,” according to the survey, as China’s economic recovery leaves more room for growth. While the assessment of MSCI China members has expanded to a long—term average multiple of 12 times earnings, “we expect more growth given the cyclical upswing in 2023,” the bank’s strategists added.

About 84% of respondents have a “net long position and overweight” in China, while 78% expect further growth in Chinese markets by 10-20% by the end of this year. About 74% of them believe that China’s markets will not reach their peak before June or even later.

Most financial managers named the internet sector as their top choice, followed by consumers and healthcare. The study showed that most investors prefer stocks registered in Hong Kong or New York to stocks traded on local markets. Most of all, they are concerned about a weaker-than-expected recovery in consumption, geopolitical tensions and negative government policies.

“All key risks on the domestic front have dissipated, with optimism about easing geopolitical tensions in the region this year as well,” Bank of America strategists, including Ajay Singh Kapoor, said in a separate note to clients on Tuesday.

He added that policies aimed at Covid-19, private sector regulation, geopolitics, the credit cycle and property are “more conducive to high stock returns,” and clients do not need to worry that the rally in China could exhaust itself.

However, the powerful rally is starting to falter as the lunar New Year approaches. Some investors have reduced their assets, said Zhang Yidong, chief global investment strategist at Industrial Securities in Shanghai.

Online classroom giant Koolearn has Tripled its Revenue by Switching to Live Streaming e-commerce

China’s most famous online school chain has tripled its sales in six months, switching to selling food and agricultural products live after Beijing’s abrupt ban on commercial extracurricular education in 2021, which upended the multibillion-dollar industry.

Koolearn Technology Holding, a subsidiary of Beijing-based private tutoring giant New Oriental Education & Technology Group, on Tuesday reported revenue of 2.08 billion yuan (US$307 million) from June to November, up 260% from the same period in 2021.

✔️ According to the interim report of a company registered in Hong Kong, companies related to live e-commerce generated more than 85% of total revenue.

The results show that Koolearn has “successfully turned into an online business for e-commerce,” analysts at Shanghai-based research and consulting company SWS Research said in a note.

Koolearn currently has more than 35 million subscribers on six accounts of Douyin, TikTok’s Chinese sibling, which boasts more than 600 million daily active users.

According to the interim report, the company placed more than 70 million orders in the six months ended November 2022, for a total transaction amount of 4.8 billion yuan.

The share price of Koolearn fell by more than 8% and closed at 61.9 Hong Kong dollars on Wednesday, compared with about 4 Hong Kong dollars at the beginning of June last year and exceeded the level before the crackdown.


TAL Education Report released

Key events of the third quarter of fiscal year 2023:

⛔️ Revenue amounted to 232.7M$, compared with revenue of 1,020.9M$ in the same period of the previous year.

✅ The loss from operations amounted to 32.9M$, compared with a loss from operations of 108.4M$ in the same period of the previous year.

➡️ The loss per American depositary share amounted to $0.08

✅ The amount of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments is $3,040.5M as of November 30, 2022, compared to $2,708.7M as of February 28, 2022.

Key events for the 9 months ended November 30, 2022:

⛔️ Revenue of $750,8M, compared to revenue of $3,849,8M in the same period of the previous year.

✅ The loss from operations amounted to 46.3M$, compared with a loss from operations of 615.2M$ in the same period of the previous year.

✅ Income from non-GAAP operations excluding share-based compensation expenses was $35.9M, compared to a non-GAAP loss from operations of $440.5M in the same period of the previous year.

The first reaction of the market is a slight drop.

Credit Suisse is cautiously optimistic as mainland investors support China’s opening and foreign funds are unsure

According to Credit Suisse, mainland Chinese investors support Beijing’s reopening plan, even if foreign investors seem unsure.

“The overall message this year is cautious optimism,” said John Woods, the Swiss bank’s chief investment officer for Asia Pacific.

China is the main market for the bank’s clients in the Asia-Pacific region, among them pharmaceuticals, tourism and the Internet sector. According to Credit Suisse, high-yield bonds and investment-grade loans are among the main investment topics of the bank in the first half of 2023.

However, foreign investors do not yet believe in the story of China’s discovery due to concerns about the impact of the rapidly growing number of cases of infection on the growth and profits of companies, Woods said. China reopened its border with Hong Kong and the world on January 8 after almost three years, lifting strict quarantine requirements.

“Despite the fact that there is no suitable scenario to effectively manage the Covid-19 outbreak, the opening of China was too chaotic,” Woods said. Credit Suisse believes that it will take at least one quarter to normalize business activity.

At the same time, China is the only major economy that will expand this year, and it will attract attention and an influx of investors, Woods said. Credit Suisse predicts that China’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2023. This will be much more than in the US and Europe, whose economies will be hampered by a possible recession and higher inflation.

According to Woods, despite the fact that China’s reopening scheme will be an easy task for some investors, there will be problems along the way as authorities respond to spikes in infections and re-infections.

“The opening of China will have a positive impact on tourism, travel, hospitality and entertainment, which will create a positive halo effect in other parts of Asia,” he added.

“The reopening will mean that millions of tourists and visitors will be able to enter Hong Kong, which will have a positive impact on the city’s economy and corporate income,” Woods said, adding that investors are rallying for shares of large companies.

But Woods said the business movement between Hong Kong and Singapore has always been cyclical, and investors will eventually return. People can move to Singapore, but they often return, and the “fluctuations between the two centers” will continue.

According to him, Hong Kong “will remain the gateway to China’s markets.” “As long as the yuan remains non-convertible and Hong Kong has a convertible hard currency into the Hong Kong dollar, the city will have a very deep and secure future.”

@ESG_Stock_Market

China’s GDP: the economy grew by 2.9% in Q4, by 3% in 2022 — the second lowest since 1976

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China's GDP: the economy grew by 2.9% in Q4, by 3% in 2022
Post Views: 42

China’s GDP: the economy grew by 2.9% in Q4, by 3% in 2022 — the second lowest since 1976.

Let’s see how Chinese companies are trading in the Asian session. Top 20 stocks:

1. Alibaba +0,09%
2. JDcom -3,53%
3. EDU -1,18%
4. Li Auto -0,99%
5. XPeng -2,73%
6. NIO -1,18%
7. BYD -2,47%
8. Baidu -3,05%
9. Tencent -0,92%
10. Bilibili -1,7%
11. NetEase -1,94%
12. Autohome -0,79%
13. SMIC +2,42%
14. Xiaomi -2,02%
15. PetroChina -0,52%
16. China Life -3,49%
17. Baozun -2,4%
18. China Petroleum & Chemical 0%
19. Meituan -1,27%
20. Lenovo -0,99%

Compared with the closing of trading in the US session on Friday, Chinese shares in Hong Kong are falling by 2-4%, and compared with yesterday’s trading, a drop of 1-3%. Indices and ETFs for China in the range from -0.16 to -1.31%.

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 This week, Chinese Vice Premier Liu will meet with US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Washington says the goal is to “deepen communication,” while Beijing called the meeting “policy coordination.”

Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Xie Feng urges the United States not to use technology as a weapon. Xie, who is widely considered China’s next ambassador to the United States, calls for cooperation, not confrontation.

📊 China’s GDP: the economy grew by 2.9% in Q4, by 3% in 2022 — the second lowest since 1976.
Due to the negative statistics released, Chinese stocks are falling today.
CHINA’S GDP: GROWTH RATES IN 2022m ARE AMONG THE SLOWEST IN RECENT YEARS

The Chinese economy grew by 2.9% YoY in 4Q22, down from 3.9% YoY growth in 3Q22, but above market estimates of 1.8% growth. Quarterly dynamics: 0% kvq vs 3.9% kvq. For the whole of 2022, the economy increased by 3.0% YoY (8.1% in 2021), noticeably falling short of the official target of 5.5%. This is one of the slowest annual rates in recent decades, the worst was in 2020, when China’s GDP added only 2.2%.

The Chinese State Bureau notes that “… the economic recovery is not sustainable, since the global situation is still difficult and difficult, and internal pressure in the form of a reduction in demand, supply shock and weakening expectations still persists …”. The Chinese authorities plan to announce the GDP growth target for 2023 in March

The Netherlands will not accept new US restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing technologies to China and is consulting with European and Asian allies. “We have been talking to the Americans for a long time, but in October they came up with new rules. It cannot be said that we have been under pressure for two years and now we have to sign along the dotted line. And we won’t,” said Dutch Trade Minister Lije Schreinemacher.

The escalation of the US-China conflict “poses a great danger” for the whole world, said Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. The US and China should restore trust and establish a secretariat in a neutral country such as Switzerland to manage their relations, because their five-year conflict is escalating and “poses a great danger” for them themselves and the world, Roach said.

In China, the first population decline in 60 years is observed in 2022. The total population of mainland China last year was 1.4118 billion people, a decrease of 850,000 people.
CHINA’S ECONOMY IN DECEMBER: THE FIGURES ARE BETTER THAN FORECAST, BUT THE MARKET SITUATION IS STILL QUITE RESTRAINED

The Chinese State Bureau presented relatively good figures for the results of December

• Industry: 1.3% YoY vs 2.2% YoY in November; 0.2% YoY expected. All of 2022: 3.6% yy vs 3.8 yy a year earlier

• Retail sales: -1.8% yy vs -5.9% yy, expected -8.6% yy. All of 2022: -0.25% yy vs -0.09 yy a year earlier

• Investments in fixed assets: 5.1% for 11M22 (forecast 5.0%)

All three indicators came out above consensus. On January 8 of this year, China announced the lifting of anti-bullying restrictions, which hit many segments of the Chinese economy quite sensitively. Previously published statistics on foreign trade indicate a rather weak state of Chinese exports.

Volkswagen expects China’s car market to grow by 5% to 23 million units in 2023.

They say that Evergrande will offer two options for restructuring an offshore company. In one of the options, some debts will be extended to 12 years.
China Evergrande said that its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), resigned due to disagreements over issues related to the audit of its financial statements for 2021.

Ryan Cohen has acquired a stake in Alibaba worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is pushing the e-commerce giant to increase and accelerate share buybacks. Previously, Cohen earned money by investing in meme shares of GameStop. Today we will translate the details.

✅ Online retail sales in China increased by 4% in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported.

Most Chinese provinces are planning GDP growth of 5-6% in 2023. The highest figure was set in the southern Chinese province of Hainan. 4 out of 31 provinces and regions are aiming to achieve annual GDP growth above 7%, and 20 have set goals of about 6%.

Hong Kong stocks are weaker as traders leave the overheated market and China reports a slowdown in growth, while Fosun shows a downtrend.

📌 Hong Kong stocks fell from a six-month high after a government report showed that China’s economic growth slowed last quarter, giving investors an excuse to reduce their assets in an overheated market.

📌 The Hang Seng index declined 1 percent to 21,527.39 during a break in trading at noon local time. The Tech Index lost 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3%.

📌 E-commerce platform owner JD.com It lost 3% to HK$ 236.60, and search engine operator Baidu lost 2.7% to HK$ 130.70. Tencent fell 0.8% to HK$ 367.20. Shares of Macau casino operator Sands China fell 3% to HK$ 27.90, while shares of WuXi Biologics fell 5.4% to HK$ 69.90.

📌 China’s economy grew by 2.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 3.9% in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said. The agency added that the annual growth was 3% compared to 8.1% in 2021.

📌 Other government reports today showed that retail sales fell by 1.8% compared to last year after a 5.9% decline in November. Industrial production increased by 1.3% compared with an increase of 2.2% in November.

📌 Against this trend, Fosun International shares gained 2.8% to HK$ 7.34. The inland onshore division of a diversified Chinese conglomerate has received a syndicated loan of 12 billion yuan (US$1.8 billion) from eight Chinese banks, indicating that its liquidity problem has improved.

@ESG_Stock_Market

BTC exchange rate and halving 2023, expert opinion. The beginning of bottom formation.

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BTC exchange rate and halving 2023, expert opinion. The beginning of bottom formation.
Post Views: 98

BTC exchange rate and halving: historically it turned out that the bottom in BTC began to form +- 470 days before the next halving.
Many industry experts expect the Halving (expected in April 2024) to be the most important driver of the next bull market in BTC this time (just like in all previous times).
BTC exchange rate dynamics and halving. The current trend so far continues to fit the pattern of behavior of the BTC exchange rate in past cycles (days after the halving and as we approach the next halving), the halving is inevitable.

BTC and Halving exchange rate dynamics
Expert Opinion:
CEO Huobi: the next halving in 2024 … Growth can be expected after that … Kiptozyma may last until 2025.

The CEO of Morgan Creek predicts the beginning of the next bull market in BTC in 2024. The catalyst will be another halving.

CEO of Bitkub crypto exchange: the next bull market in BTC is expected in 2024 – when another Halving will take place

Willy Woo: BTC has completely changed macro cycles, now the dynamics are less dependent on halving – (selebrity analyst Willy Woo: BTC has completely changed macro cycles. Previously, macro cycles in BTC were driven by halving.
Now macro cycles have become less predictable and have begun to be driven by supply/demand from the complex ecosystem. Willy Woo thinks that the current cycle in BTC is close to the bottom and there is no limit to growth at all)

PlanB starts to expect rally in BTC in 2024 after another

✴️ #BTC #cycles #markets #crypto #halving #history #presentation #daily #presentation

@ESG_Stock_Market

The 80-day trading day cycle could coincide with the DeMark depletion at the end of January

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The 80-day trading day cycle for S&P 500
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The 80-day trading day cycle could coincide with the DeMark depletion at the end of January

It is important to focus on this 80-day cycle as it has lined up correctly with most of the highs and lows of the past 12 months.

As long as the markets do not deviate from this cycle, I suspect that further erosion of equity indices in late January will lead to a sharp rally in March.

This would be consistent with both of DeMark’s signals, which could be confirmed on weekly charts of major technology stocks such as $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL (which have yet to be confirmed, and in the case of $GOOGL, are premature).

In addition, hitting a bottom over the next few weeks would also be consistent with the first-half strength usually seen in the first quarter in pre-election years, which many people don’t pay much attention to. Thus, earnings could be the key factor, but for now, buying “dips” from mid-December 2022 still seems early.

An ideal scenario would be for the SPX to cross the 3,800 mark, coinciding with a sharp reversal in yields by the end of January. After that, equity markets could bottom in late January or early February and turn up by the spring, led by a sharp rebound in technology. At present, as we have discussed, this looks premature, and I expect Friday’s bounce to fail starting next week.

@ESG_Stock_Market

The minutes from the Late FOMC Meeting (Minutes)

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fomc minutes vs fomc
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The minutes from the Late FOMC Meeting (Minutes), Highlights:

– The Fed continues to fight inflation and expects higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made

– Rate cuts should not happen in 2023, further rate hikes are needed now

– Given the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several FOMC members noted that historical experience cautions against premature and unwarranted easing of monetary policy

– Inflation may be more resilient than it may seem

– Inflation is still seen as a key threat, but bilateral risks still need to be balanced.

– The minutes note that officials are grappling with two risks: first, that the Fed is not keeping rates high enough and allowing inflation to remain high, as it did in the 1970s; and second, that the Fed is spending too long on restrictive policies and slowing the economy too much, potentially placing the greatest burden on the most vulnerable

– Powell indicated that while some progress has been made in fighting inflation, he sees only some signs of stopping and expects rates to remain at higher levels even after prices stop rising.

Full article: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20221214.pdf

@ESG_Stock_Market

Tesla stock technical analysis-early 2023

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Tesla stock technical analysis-early 2023
Post Views: 53

Tesla stock technical analysis-early 2023. A breakout of Tesla to new lows, would bring the price below $100

$TSLA remains strongly bearish in the near term, and despite being oversold, it shows no signs of reaching a bottom.

Based on a combination of daily and weekly cycles as well as DeMark instruments, TSLA still has the potential to weaken to below $100 by the January earnings report before a stabilization and rebound occurs.

A few key takeaways.

– TSLA has lost over 60% in just the last three months after peaking around $313 on 9/20/222. Since mid-September 2022, TSLA has lost nearly 200 points, dropping to its lowest levels since the fall of 2020. Technical structure and momentum remain very negative

– The daily RSI reading is now oversold on the daily charts and is near levels that coincided with the historical bottom on the weekly charts. (February 2016 and May 2019) However, this does not guarantee a meaningful low

– DeMark tools such as TD Sequential and TD Combo- (trend exhaustion indicators) on weekly charts prematurely show the presence of a low and suggest the possibility of another 2-3 weeks of weakness to the low

@ESG_Stock_Market

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