The minutes from the Late FOMC Meeting (Minutes), Highlights:
– The Fed continues to fight inflation and expects higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made
– Rate cuts should not happen in 2023, further rate hikes are needed now
– Given the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several FOMC members noted that historical experience cautions against premature and unwarranted easing of monetary policy
– Inflation may be more resilient than it may seem
– Inflation is still seen as a key threat, but bilateral risks still need to be balanced.
– The minutes note that officials are grappling with two risks: first, that the Fed is not keeping rates high enough and allowing inflation to remain high, as it did in the 1970s; and second, that the Fed is spending too long on restrictive policies and slowing the economy too much, potentially placing the greatest burden on the most vulnerable
– Powell indicated that while some progress has been made in fighting inflation, he sees only some signs of stopping and expects rates to remain at higher levels even after prices stop rising.
Full article: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20221214.pdf
Tesla stock technical analysis-early 2023. A breakout of Tesla to new lows, would bring the price below $100
$TSLA remains strongly bearish in the near term, and despite being oversold, it shows no signs of reaching a bottom.
Based on a combination of daily and weekly cycles as well as DeMark instruments, TSLA still has the potential to weaken to below $100 by the January earnings report before a stabilization and rebound occurs.
A few key takeaways.
– TSLA has lost over 60% in just the last three months after peaking around $313 on 9/20/222. Since mid-September 2022, TSLA has lost nearly 200 points, dropping to its lowest levels since the fall of 2020. Technical structure and momentum remain very negative
– The daily RSI reading is now oversold on the daily charts and is near levels that coincided with the historical bottom on the weekly charts. (February 2016 and May 2019) However, this does not guarantee a meaningful low
– DeMark tools such as TD Sequential and TD Combo- (trend exhaustion indicators) on weekly charts prematurely show the presence of a low and suggest the possibility of another 2-3 weeks of weakness to the low
Detailed guide on how to work with Trust Wallet Crypto Wallet – installation, configuration, purchase and payment of goods with Tether USDT TRC20 Stablecoin.
Tether USD (USDT) TRC20 is a USD-linked staplecoin issued by Tether on the TRON network. It is one of the most liquid stabelcoins on the cryptocurrency market, paired with all tokens traded on many cryptocurrency exchanges. According to Tether, the coins are backed by real reserves, although everything is not so unambiguous here.
While there have been signs of attempts to collapse this stabelcoin recently, Tether remains by far the most reliable tool for arbitrage spending and beyond. How to set up trust wallet.
What is the difference between USDT ERC-20 and TRC-20
Tether USDT equivalents exist in different networks.
USDT ERC-20 – works in the Ethereum network
USDT TRC-20 – on the TRON blockchain network – has become popular due to its transfer speed and low fees.
When transferring funds, it is important to choose the right network and correctly specify the destination address. Otherwise, the money will be lost.
ERC-20 and TRC-20 can be easily recognized by the address format. The USDT address in the Tron network (TRC-20) starts with “Tx”, and in the Ethereum network (ERC-20) it starts with “0x”.
Exchanges supporting USDT based on TRC20
What you need to use Tether USDT TRC20
A cryptocurrency wallet to work with the Tether USDT TRC20 token.
USDT TRC20 wallet balance.
TRON token (TRX) – required to pay fees when transferring USDT.
Trust Wallet
Trust Wallet is a secure and reliable multi-wallet for buying, selling and storing cryptocurrency.
Trust Wallet is the main ethereum mobile wallet which works with any ERC20 , BEP2 and ERC721. It also supports the main blockchains in the Etherium ecosystem – Etherium , Etherium Classic and Callisto. Over 20,000 tokens built on Etherium are currently available through the Trust Wallet app .
Installing and configuring Trust Wallet
Trust Wallet exists only as a mobile application for Android and iOS.
Find the app in the App Store or Play Market and install it
Launch the application.
If you already have a previously created crypto wallet, you can add it to Trust Wallet by clicking “I already have a wallet”
To create a new wallet, click “Create New Wallet”.
Then you need to agree to the privacy policy and terms and click “Continue”
Set a secret code to log in to Trust Wallet
The next very responsible step is to save the 12 secret phrases. Here Trust Wallet warns about the importance of keeping them out of reach of unauthorized persons.
Check the boxes that we understood the importance of this action and click “Continue”.
We see 12 phrases – write them down on a sheet of paper and keep them in a safe place
IMPORTANT. If you lose the list of phrases – you will not be able to restore access to the wallet and your funds on it!
IMPORTANT. If the secret phrases get to someone else, he will have access to your wallet and the funds in it!
Next, Trust Wallet will check if we saved the secret phrases correctly. To do this, it will ask us to put them in the right order.
Trust Wallet successfully created
For convenience, you can customize the list of displayed tokens
See your wallet and an empty balance of USDT TRC20
By pressing the “Get” button you can find out the address of your wallet
Buying USDT in the Trust Wallet app
This is the easiest way to buy USDT TRC20 to your cryptocurrency wallet, but not suitable for RF residents – Russian bank cards are not accepted.
Minimum purchase amount is $50.
There are several service providers through which you can buy USDT TRC20
This is the easiest way to buy USDT TRC20 to your cryptocurrency wallet, but not suitable for RF residents – Russian bank cards are not accepted.
Minimum purchase amount is $50.
There are several service providers through which you can buy USDT TRC20
Buying USDT through exchangers
You can buy USDT TRC20 through third-party exchangers by paying in a convenient way.
Choose an exchanger with the right conditions and a good trust.
Go to it and start exchanging
We chose an exchanger with a small minimum amount to exchange, but they are usually less favorable rate.
Next, let’s look at the example of a single exchanger. Different services have different interfaces, but the mechanics are about the same.
Enter the amount of the exchange and the data that the service requests. Usually these are card number, wallet address for receiving USDT TRC20, full name and Email.
Confirm the correctness of the entered details
Then the service will provide details for payment
It is necessary to make payment in the allotted time and be sure to exactly the amount that is specified.
Accepted for processing – awaiting receipt of funds
In the list of requests we can see the status of the exchange
Funds are credited to our Trust Wallet. The speed of crediting depends on the service.
Buy USDT TRC20 on Binance
To fully work with the exchange https://binance.com requires the verification of identity
Verification
Personal information
State ID card
Facial recognition
Processing time: 2 days
– Deposit and withdrawal limits in fiat $50K daily – Deposit limit for Cryptocurrency No restrictions – Limit for withdrawal of cryptocurrency 160K BUSD daily – P2P transaction limits No restrictions – Other Products LPD/OTC
p2p exchange
Go to the p2p exchange Binance
Choose “Buy
Choose USDT
Specify amount, currency and payment method
Having found a suitable offer, read the details of the exchange
And click “Buy USDT”
Transfer money to the specified details and only after that confirm the payment by clicking “Paid, next”.
Received USDT will be credited to the wallet for recharge in Binance
And then you can withdraw them to your Trust Wallet
In doing so, be sure to select the Tron TRX network
Binance P2P Express
In Binance P2P Express mode, users can place orders directly by specifying the amount of fiat or cryptocurrency and their preferred payment method. Orders are selected based on the best price available on P2P markets.
Switch to the Express tab
Select currency, token and amount
From the proposed payment options choose the one that suits us and meme “Confirm purchase”
Then we see the details, details for payment and chat with the counterparty
After paying to the specified details, click “Paid, next”.
Waiting for the arrival of USDT on the wallet to recharge.
Buying Tron (TRX) to pay commissions
To pay/transfer USDT TRC20 you need to have some Tron tokens (TRX) on your wallet to pay the blockchain fee. As a rule it is a little more than $1 per transfer.
NFT tokens are so popular that China will launch the world’s first state-run marketplace to deal with them. The marketplace will launch on January 1 during an offline event in Beijing. Its name translates as “China’s digital asset trading platform.”
What can the platform do? It will help Chinese traders buy NFT, as well as digital copyrights and property rights. It’s just like with digital works of art: they can be traded on closed and strictly regulated platforms.
Is an NFT platform a positive thing? Absolutely. Apparently, China is not going to ban the crypto industry. True, it doesn’t use the term NFT, instead it uses “digital collectibles.”
Is China loosening regulations? It seems that they are going to create an investor-friendly environment there. For example, recently the Celestial Empire allowed some companies to audit for the American regulator.
November PCE inflation report was modest. Core PCE was +0.17% m/m (Fundstrat expected +0.15%), marking the second consecutive modest PCE report and adding to the constellation of “soft” CPI and PPI reports.
We continue to view the 3M annual CPI or PCE as a more accurate metric for assessing inflationary trends. The 3M annual core PCE collapsed to 3.63% versus 5.23% in October and should fall to 2.14% next month.
Curiously, financial services +0.07% from +0.17% growth, or almost half. Where is financial services inflation coming from? Finally, the FOMC’s December 2022 forecast for core PCE inflation remains at 4.8% (the range of FOMC member forecasts was 4.6% to 5.0%), and December 2022 inflation will be 4.2%.
Realized inflation tracks 60 bps below the FOMC forecast.
Surprising divergence from the Fed forecast, is it possible that their data is lagging or inaccurate?
Fed may have stale inflation data due to ransomware attack
The Fed made a statement that contradicts the actual data from September through December. One of my most experienced and respected macro clients (based in New York) suggested that the Fed’s forecasts may have been affected by a cyber-attack on Haver Analytics related to extortion money.
Why? – First of all, take a look at Fed Chairman Powell’s response (in response to Politico’s Victoria Guida):
The PCE core inflation deflator will be 4.2% by 2022, which is -30 bps below the Fed’s forecast in September. This is 60 bps lower than the FOMC’s current 2022 PCE inflation forecast of 4.8%.
Could it be that the Fed data is lagging or incorrect?
Haver Analytics has not updated its database due to a security check
Haver Analytics is widely used on Wall Street to collect real-time economic data. We used Haver when I worked at JPMorgan. At Fundstrat, we have three other data providers.
As shown in the picture, Haver has not updated data since December 13 (which is the day the November CPI was published). Thus, any firm using Haver data will not get the November CPI.
Details: ❇️ As megacities such as Beijing and Guangzhou, South China’s Guangdong province, emerge from the initial wave of coronavirus infections during the country’s transitional phases of response to COVID-19, a friendly buzz gradually returns to revive the virus-stricken consumer market. ❇️ Adding to the pleasant buzz are the many actions by local governments in support of consumption to prepare excited crowds for joyous moments as the New Year and Spring holidays approach. ❇️ With growing signs of a fundamental resurgence in consumer sentiment after three years of fighting the virus, industry insiders and economists alike are bolstering their faith in the country’s purchasing power, which may have gone into some hibernation amid a lingering epidemic. ❇️ A superstrong signal from the central government to give a boost to consumption on a variety of fronts is thought to accelerate a reset in consumption.
It takes time to lower y/y inflation because it requires discarding previous “high” months
To reduce Core PCE inflation for the year, it is necessary to “discard” the higher months.
Recall that Core PCE inflation is a price level index, which means that it depends on cumulative price changes over 12 months.
Therefore, it takes time for y/y to decline. And as shown in the picture, over the next few months the “big” monthly gains will decline. But in January Core PCE inflation may have something with a number “3” in front of it (inflation <4%).
Visualizing the state of global debt by country Since COVID-19 began spreading around the world in 2020, the global economy has been put to the test: the supply chain has been disrupted, commodity prices have become volatile, labor market problems have arisen, and tourism income has declined. The World Bank estimates that the pandemic has pushed nearly 97 million people into extreme poverty.
To help in this difficult situation, world governments have been forced to increase their spending to cope with rising health care costs, unemployment, food insecurity and to help businesses survive. Countries took on new debt obligations to provide financial support for these measures, resulting in the highest level of global debt in half a century.
To analyze the extent of global debt, we gathered data on debt-to-GDP ratios by country from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio by Country: The 10 Most Indebted Countries The debt-to-GDP ratio is a simple metric that compares a country’s public debt to its economic output. By comparing how much a country owes and how much it produces in a year, economists can estimate a country’s theoretical ability to pay its debt.
Let’s look at the top 10 countries in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio:
Japan, Sudan and Greece top the list with debt-to-GDP ratios well above 200%, followed by Eritrea (175%), Cape Verde (160%) and Italy (154%).
Japan’s debt level will not come as a surprise to many. In 2010 it became the first country to reach a debt-to-GDP ratio of 200%, and the figure is now 257%. To finance the new debt, the Japanese government issues bonds, which are mainly bought by the Bank of Japan.
By the end of 2020, the Bank of Japan owned 45% of outstanding government debt.
What is the main risk of a high debt-to-GDP ratio? The rapid increase in government debt is a major cause for concern. As a general rule, the higher a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, the more likely a country is to default on its debt, causing financial panic in the markets.
The World Bank published a study showing that countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 77% over a long period of time have experienced economic recession.
COVID-19 exacerbated the debt crisis that has been brewing since the global recession of 2008. A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that at least 100 countries will have to cut spending on health care, education and social protection. In addition, 30 countries in the developing world have a high level of debt crisis, which means that they are having great difficulty servicing their debts.
This crisis is hitting poor and middle-income countries harder than rich countries. Rich countries are borrowing to launch fiscal stimulus packages, while low- and middle-income countries cannot afford such measures, potentially leading to even greater global inequality.
IMF warns about interest rates
By the end of 2020, global debt reached $226 trillion, the largest annual increase since World War II.
Borrowing by governments accounted for just over half of the $28 trillion, bringing the world’s public debt ratio to a record 99 percent of GDP. As interest rates rise, IMF officials warn that higher interest rates will reduce the effects of fiscal spending and increase concerns about debt sustainability. “Risks will increase if global interest rates rise faster than expected and growth slows,” the officials write.
“Significant tightening of financial conditions will increase pressure on the most highly indebted governments, households, and companies. If the public and private sectors are forced to cut spending at the same time, growth prospects will suffer.”
Netflix and Amazon have long shared the streaming video pie from a global perspective, until Walt Disney launched its Disney+ service in November 2019. the streaming arm will reach people in more than 100 regions worldwide. But will it be enough to battle the VoD giants?
As the company’s data and Statista research show, Disney+ is likely to remain in fourth place for some time in terms of greatest reach. Although it has overtaken iQiyi in terms of subscribers thanks to continued but halted growth in 2021, the Chinese streaming service, founded in Beijing in 2010, is available almost everywhere in the world. On the other hand, the total number of VIP subscribers to Tencent’s Tencent Video and WeTV platforms exceeds the number of people subscribed to Disney’s streaming service, while the platforms are officially available in only 14 countries, mostly in Southeast Asia. According to the company, despite slowing growth, Walt Disney expects its streaming service to be available in 160 countries by 2023.
Subscription-based video-on-demand services have gone from being a trend to an economic mainstay, and many television networks and entertainment companies, such as HBO, NBC and AMC, are launching their own platforms with mixed success. According to Digital TV Research, VoD subscription revenue more than tripled between 2016 and 2020 and is expected to reach $126 billion in 2026, likely due to original programming and the continued need for consumers to diversify and pay for multiple subscriptions. to get their streaming fix. #Disney $DIS @ESG_Stock_Market
Global stocks are in a downward spiral and have experienced their worst week in more than a year. Worries about slowing demand in the aftermath of the crisis and rising rates contributed to the sell-off. Pandemic stocks suffered the most, with Shopify and Netflix down 35.3% and 33.5%, respectively.
The stock market, and in particular the stocks that thrived during the COVID-19 pandemic, are having a bad time in 2022. If you watch your investment accounts, you probably see a lot of red. Shaken by uncertainty about the pandemic recovery and future interest rate hikes, investors are selling off their stocks.
This market sell-off – which occurs when investors sell a large volume of securities in a short period of time, resulting in rapid price declines – is troubling for investors. In fact, search interest in the term “sell-off” recently peaked at 100. If Google Trends is to be believed.
Unconvincing pandemic stock returns
Pandemic stocks and technology-focused companies suffered the most. Here’s a more detailed look at individual stock returns for the year.
Netflix triggered a sell-off after it reported a disappointing increase in subscribers. The company added 8.28 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, down from the 8.5 million it added in the fourth quarter of 2020. The company also predicts slower year-over-year subscriber growth in the near future, citing competition from other streaming services . company .
Meanwhile, Coinbase stock has lost nearly a quarter of its value this year. As prices of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin have plummeted, investors fear that Coinbase will see lower trading volume and therefore lower fees.
Infection has also spread to other pandemic stocks such as Zoom and DocuSign , as investors have begun to question the resilience of stocks staying home.
2022 is starting to paint a different picture
While investor exuberance drove many of these stocks higher last year, 2022 is starting to paint a different picture.
Investors are concerned that rising rates will negatively impact fast-growing stocks because it means it’s more expensive to borrow money. Not only that, they may also see Netflix’s rise as a harbinger of future events for other pandemic stocks.
Market cycle psychology also plays a role – among these fears, investors have adopted a herd mentality and started selling their stocks en masse.
#stocks @ESG_Stock_Market
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