Nomura Securities, Charlie McElligott – My opinion about NVDA

Nomura Securities, Charlie McElligott (in his note to clients by mail):

“My opinion about NVDA: when you see how the 4th largest stock in SPX and QQQ rallies at one point by +28% after-hours (vs an options implied move of ~7.5%) on the shock of profit growth, it’s just an absolutely brutal demonstration of strength, saying that that this generative AI boom is a “Real Thing”… when revenue exceeded $11.0 billion. compared to the previous forecast of $7.2 billion (+53% compared to the previous forecast – WUT?!) … when the excess of the forecast > the market capitalization of 93% of Russell 2000 shares … and while the EPS estimate for 2024 was $4.60 before the publication of profit, and now some analysts are throwing numbers, almost twice as high as these forecasts for the next year…and after the company added 1.5 Intels on cap’y per night…It’s just a fool’s mistake – trying to pick the top and short MegaCap Tech or the US stock index as a whole on the “valuation” thesis alone (this, in my opinion, will require a likely “inflation surprise/escalation of policy tightening” additionally), as these companies prove again and again the old thesis of “secular growth”, which made these stocks incredibly popular at this stage: they don’t need a hot economic cycle to surpass revenues and profits, as they are simply liquid, money-generating machines.” @ESG_Stock_Market